Jeff on The Dollar

Yes, it´s true that I am in Finland....far removed from the turmoil on the ´street´in Manhatten, but it is also true that I have a computer whose homepage was immediately changed to yahoo finance (englsh language selection) upon my arrival to my latest host family. It´s a nice afternoon (7 hour difference between Lapland and Wall Street) reprive when I can look in on the markets I so love. As some of you know I made a play on the dollar´s bottoming out a couple of weeks ago. At that time it was trading at 99 yen/dollar and 0.59€/dollar. While it normally would be ill fated to talk about successful trades, (especially ones that were conducted on margin) I feel my offsetting leveraged buy on GS at 171.20 is going to more than make up for the gain I hope to realize later today (when I wake up from my afternoon nap/sauna) when I exit the dollar.

Predictions for the week. Earnings will not be good for financials. The bad news may have been priced into the market already, with the exception of the Wachovia deal that will represent an 18% discount on the closing price Friday before market open today, so I´m not sure how much the bad news will effect pricing, but none the less it should be a negative week. There will be downward pressure on the dollar spurred by renewed concerns on inflation. I also don´t think we have heard the end of the bad news from the airlines industry. Some positive news from DAL/NWA camps will help some, but it seems difficult to imagine that there will be a turn around in that industry as a whole. Lastly, I am predicting GS to hit 173.12 before week end (this last one is really more wishful thinking than actual predicting).