Lore of the Land

A blog dedicated to the cerebral upchucks and observations of a self promoting genius ahead of his time. Concentrating on the economy, political rebuke and the profound observations of this world we call home.....

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Steve & Warren's Piggy Banks

If the dollar was a nursery rhyme character it would be close relative to Humpty Dumpty. Anyone that's followed the crash of this once great currency during our current administration has seen our global purchasing power disintegrate before our eyes. It's certain that it's going to take more than 'all the kings horses, and all the kings men' to put the dollar back together again, but it's also certain that the dollar WILL appreciate again. When you ask? If I knew that I'd be holed up in some eastern European castle driving some car I've never heard of and dating a super model whose name I can't pronounce. Fantasies aside, there are some things we common folk can do to take a stab at a currency play without having to pledge our first born as margin collateral for an FX account. Let's look at a couple of cash rich companies that will inevitably be worth more when the dollar starts its uphill climb.

Apple (AAPL) is currently sitting on a cash balance of $18.45 billion or ~$21/share. If the dollar appreciates just 5% (it's lost 10.5% against the yen in the last 6 months) this would add an additional $1 billion in purchasing power. That's a significant boon to an already strong company and already strong balance sheet.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) is sitting on a whopping $47.08 billion in cash. For a company that makes headlines and moves markets when it decides to go on a spending spree this war chest will spell opportunity once the dollar cooperates. Anyone that's read the 2007 shareholder letter has a sense of how Warren and the boys were able to capitalize on the dollars decline. The same opportunities to capitalize when it rally's will exist.

So the next time you're at a black tie nose turned up dinner party and some hot shot from New Haven talks about his new Ferrari that he financed with a leveraged put on the dollar remind yourself that his currency play doesn't allow him to sleep at night and yours does.

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